Key takeaways
- The planning fallacy makes people optimistic about their own tasks and pessimistic about others', so a PM's view can balance a specialist's estimate.
- Never frame work as easy or straightforward; it makes estimators more optimistic and devalues their work.
- Break anything over about ten days into smaller parts and estimate in ranges; a wide range flags unknowns to document.
- Revisit estimates at milestones rather than living off the first one made at the wide end of the cone of uncertainty.
- Estimate conservatively for the resources you actually have, and define an expedited estimating process before you need it.
About this episode
“We tend to think we can do things a lot faster than we really can. We also tend to think that the risks won't really be as bad and that the benefits will be really good."
Anyone who has ever estimated a project, or even a single task, knows that it’s tough work. Not only are you making guesses about time spent or pricing, you’re probably also making guesses about the scope of the project itself. One question uncovers another question, and a detail you needed to know. But are you on the right path to get what you need to create a truly realistic estimate?
You might think you are, but the answer is probably no! Check out this episode of Time Limit, where Brett talks to Jacob Bodnar—the VP of Operations at Maestro—about biases in estimating, as well as in project management itself. They also discuss:
- The science of bias
- Project management bias
- The planning fallacy
- Optimism bias
- How to use your team as a check and balance when it comes to bias
- How to get to a place of understanding and deal with issues head on
- how to define a project and what you do/don’t know
- Where to find “unknowns”
- How to rule out the optimism; framing
- The language you should use in estimation